Sunday, 6 May 2012

Boris boost not Ken drag in 2012!

The votes cast in total for the mayor and the top up are very similar.

In 2012 it has been well reported that there was only a small Ken drag, however there was a Boris boost.  Whilst the Ken drag was 21,286 that he was behind his party, the Boris boost was a massive 262,863!

Looking at 2008, both Ken and Boris ran ahead of their parties. The Ken boost was 228,434 and the Boris boost was 208, 226

Intriguingly in 2004, there was a Ken boost for Labour of 217, 301 but Stephen Norris the Conservative candidate only ran 8,727 ahead of the Conservative top-up vote.

So in 2012 the Boris boost grew by 30% and the Ken boost disappeared.

In the London top up figures there was also a major swing to Labour and a further collapse of the Liberal vote...
2012: LAB 41% - CON 32% - LIB 7%
2008: LAB 28% - CON 35% - LIB 11%
2004: LAB 25% - CON 28% - LIB 17%

Saturday, 5 May 2012

Could Ken have won it? How close was he? Was there a Kendrag?

Through the selection process for Mayor and in fact for 12 years we were told that Ken performed better in elections than the Labour Party.  Maybe it washed in government, but in opposition it was unlikely to be true. So the question became is how big was the Kendrag ... and could someone else have won based on what we know from the other two votes.  The GLA candidate and  the Londonwide List .

No complexities and all the data is available on 

Overall Ken scored 40.3% of the votes, the total of our GLA candidates was 42.3% and the total of the Labour Share of the Londonwide List was 41.1%.  So this shows a 2% Kendrag.

How is Kendrag broken down by electoral area

AREA Londonwide   GLA
Barnet and Camden 3% 10%
Bexley and Bromley 0% 2%
Brent and Harrow 1% 2%
City and East 1% 1%
Croyden and Sutton 0% 0
Ealing and Hillingdon 2% 1%
Enfield and Haringay 1% 3%
Havering and Redbridge 2% 1%
Greenwich and Lewisham 0% 1%
Lambeth and Southwark 0% 3%
Merton and Wandsworth 2% 3%
North East -1% 0
South West 0% -1%
West Central 2% 3%

Some other analysts have only compared to the Londonwide figures which show a lower Kendrag

So Ken lost by 82,013 on first preferences and 62, 538 after transfers.

So how many votes is the difference between the vote for Ken and the totalled vote for the GLA candidates.... 43,520 (the Kendrag part ONE)

There were only 185,235 transfers, whilst there could have been 346,626.   It seems people do not understand or do not use the transfer.  The balance amongst the other candidates would have suggested that if people understood/used transfer there would have been a larger pull back from Ken.  It is also clear in this election whilst Brian Paddick was quite supportive of Ken last time as a transfer that was not true this time. Equally Siobahn Benita was not wooed and was the home mainly for an anti-Ken protest vote.  So here is Kendrag part TWO - another candidate would have picked up more second preferences from other candidates.  Why did Ken only get a transfer of 102,355 when the Green transfer was 98,913 and they openly backed Ken for transfer.  Surely if these votes transferred you would expect more votes to come from Siobhan Benita and Brian Paddick who totalled 175,000.

That takes us out of statistics and into reality.   How many votes did the tax fiasco and upsetting the Jewish community cost Ken?  How many people just did not vote and are invisible on the statistics? How many votes in Barnet could be seen as Anti-Brian Coleman rather than Anti-Ken?  How many votes came back to Ken in the last week of the election from the so called "Boris Labour"? How much effect in the Jewish community did the endorsement of Ken have? (Kendrag part THREE)

This was always going to be a close election.  With Labour rapidly extending a lead post-budget it was clear a mayoral victory could have been possible, and had Ken reached out just a little more to the Jewish and other communities he upset he might well have won it!